How to find the first purchases that lead to repeat customers.

Compare what all customers buy first with what repeat customers buy first. Look for products that show up more often among the customers who come back.

Imagine a skincare brand with three popular first purchases.

What every new customer bought:

Eye cream → 40%
Moisturizer → 25%
Starter set → 15%

What customers who later made 3+ purchases bought the first time:

Eye cream → 25%
Moisturizer → 20%
Starter set → 35%

At first glance, the eye cream looks like the obvious product to put in front of more new shoppers. It’s the most common first purchase overall.

But the starter set tells us something interesting: only 15% of customers start there overall. Among customers who eventually make 3+ purchases, that number jumps to 35%.

That doesn’t mean the starter set caused those customers to keep buying.

But it gives you a useful hypothesis to test:

What happens if more new customers start with the starter set?

You could increase its visibility on the homepage, feature it more prominently in your welcome flow, or test it on a paid landing page.

Then watch what happens beyond the first conversion:

• Do those customers come back?
• How quickly do they place order #2?
• Do they continue buying at a higher rate?

Action Item:

Pull two sets of orders:

1. What every new customer bought.
2. What customers who later made 3+ purchases bought the first time.

Then look for products that appear more often in the second group.

✨ Takeaway: Find the products repeat customers were more likely to buy first, then test giving those products more visibility with new shoppers.