How to find the first purchases that lead to repeat customers.

Use what repeat customers bought first to choose which products to feature in your emails to new shoppers.

Imagine a skincare brand with three popular first purchases.

What every new customer bought:

Eye cream → 40%
Moisturizer → 25%
Starter set → 15%

What customers who later made 3+ purchases bought the first time:

Eye cream → 25%
Moisturizer → 20%
Starter set → 35%

At first glance, the eye cream looks like the obvious product to put in front of more new shoppers. It’s the most common first purchase overall.

But the starter set tells us something interesting: only 15% of customers start there overall. Among customers who eventually make 3+ purchases, that number jumps to 35%.

That doesn’t mean the starter set caused those customers to keep buying.

But it gives you a useful hypothesis to test:

What happens if more new customers start with the starter set?

Test featuring the starter set in your welcome flow and campaigns to subscribers who haven’t bought yet.

Then watch what happens beyond the first conversion:

• Do those customers come back?
• How quickly do they place order #2?
• Do they continue buying at a higher rate?

Action Item:

Pull two sets of orders:

1. What every new customer bought the first time.
2. What customers who later made 3+ purchases bought the first time.

✨ Takeaway: Find products that repeat customers were more likely to buy first. Test featuring those products in your welcome flow and campaigns to subscribers who haven’t bought yet.